There are no shortage of pundits and “experts” prognosticating how the pandemic will affect real estate markets. First, there are transactions going on in the Vail Valley and have been going on since March 1. I have heard from my partners across the country sales are happening in their markets. New listing priced right are going under contract quickly with multiple offers in some select markets. Some sales are resulting from just Facetime walk throughs.
I have worked through 5 major economic down and up shifts in different real estate markets. I am wise enough not to give projections on prices or advice about or what people should do. Every individual has individual circumstances.
I came here in 1990 from the Bay Area as Vail shifted out of the savings and loan disruption and the oil and gas collapse. I have been through 3 economic shifts here. What I have to say is centered around our market in the Vail valley. There are many different factors that determine what people will do about real estate they own or want to own. Here are 10 micro situations that will become more visible here. Some of our specifics have to do with the large amount of second home ownership in the Vail Valley.
- There are individuals who have suffered major financial losses in their businesses and in the stock market. The market will come back but some people don’t expect their businesses will come back or just don’t have the motivation to bring it back. Some will be sellers of both local and second-home owners here.
- A segment of second home owners who own high end homes. They are determining if they use the home enough to justify paying taxes and the maintenance costs. They and their children may not be coming here very often anymore. They may be sellers.
- Some of these people will sell because it is a major asset and they can use the proceeds from a sale to rebuild their business, to retire or to prop up their children’s’ family. They could be motivated sellers.
- Conversely there are people who took their money out of the stock market and have cash or shorted the market and have lots of cash and they are going to make more money as the stock market and economy picks up (whenever that is). They are buyers.
- We have seen after every disruption those with cash look for a safe haven to escape to for the next time. They are also looking for a safe place to park their cash.
- Some frequent visitors have always rented. Now they do not want to rent into an environment they have no control over ever again. They want to feel safe in a place they can get access to when they want to in a flash.
- There are people whose current live style is permanently disrupted. They are on the move. They may or may not have been economically affected but they know they want to make a change. This is especially true of families in big cities.
- There are families here in the Vail Valley that have lost jobs and businesses and must sell and move to a less expensive area.
- These homes will be bought by those who want a change in lifestyle, especially if they have children, and can afford it. They may telecommute or start a new business. People will need another bedroom for an office, the kitchen table is not going to cut it.
- In the Vail Valley a good portion of real estate sales has been with locals who move up or down-size. They may have already been considering it. This will be the time for locals to finally get into the right home. Residents who came here 30 or 40 years ago may decide for health or financial reasons it is time to move closer to their children or just a warmer environment. Boomers are deciding on where their next 10 year home might be for the highest quality of life.
The old adage is “there are always Buyers and Sellers”. Events like this motivate Buyers and Sellers. Just like in nature, migrations happen after major disruptions. It is about to happen now in Real Estate.
If you, your friends, or family would like to discuss a possible move to or from the Vail Valley let me know how we can be a resource for information. We are here to listen, to understand unique situations, provide ideas from past experiences, provide real time market conditions, and offer different objective solutions on how to navigate the market to enable informed decisions. We are here to help!